Big Data Analytics

I spent time at work this morning reading big data analytic results. I should add that it’s time like these, when I’m being paid to read and think and nobody is bothering me, that I enjoy my job.

 

Some of the results I read were surprising, challenging assumptions. Ex-convicts make very good call center employees. Where you went to college is not a great indicator for business and professional success. Going to college and finishing are much better indicators.

I don’t know the words for all the things I read and discovered today. Knowledge can become very specialized very quickly. For example, I told my wife about the ex-convict results. Yes, she replied, but can they be trusted with credit card and personal information?

Her response is probably a modern response and I believe it’s typical. I think it’s some sort of transference. American society generally doesn’t trust ex-convicts. They broke a law and were caught and sentenced, therefore, we’ve proven they can’t be trusted. We have also demonstrated that some percentage of convictions is wrongful, numbers that vary by crime and geography, numbers influenced by race and sex. And more people in America are being sentenced for victimless crimes, such as possession of marijuana and other drugs purchased for personal use. We also have evidence that the monetization of penal institutions influences conviction and incarceration rates. Judges and DAs have been caught taking kickbacks from the institutions where they’re sending the convicted.

That highlights the differences between what data analyses can demonstrate against what people believe. I constantly encounter it on my job and weary of explaining the numbers and trends and again. We are people, though. Besides being capable of logic, we’re emotional. Once emotions color our perceptions, it seems difficult for us to drain those colors out.

The problem with acquiring knowledge is that it stimulates my thinking. That’s a lazy way of stating it. Acquiring knowledge and thinking more aren’t issues. Neither is being stimulated to think more. The problem, perhaps, is that I’m frequently perceived as a thinker but that many of my ideas and insights are difficult to follow. I know, it’s my issue, a matter of how I take that information and what I do with it – but I am a thinker, you see – but I’m also insecure, thin-skinned and emotional.

Anyway, I wondered after reading these big data results. I’d recently read that JPMorgan has decided it will only accept applications for analysts positions from Ivy League schools. That reduces their application pool and the subsequent work load to hire new employees, yet I wonder how this flies in the face of the big data results and whether JPMorgan is setting itself up for paradigm failure. I wonder if they’re yielding short term gains for long term losses, saving money by reducing their pool and hiring people fast, but losing money later because better analysts actually go to schools beside Ivy League institutions.

I wonder about how small businesses can be served by big data analytics. I saw numerous ways in which they can, from location and the name to wall paint color and décor decisions to hours, the music being played, and the services and goods being offered. Big data takes money. It’s not an easy process. But I think small businesses could benefit, especially in a place like my small town, where businesses come and go like migratory birds. My answer would be for the small businesses to form a consortium with the goal of having a big data analytics conducted on the businesses and the local economic/environmental influencers.  They could then share the costs. I imagine that as an economic project, loans and grants from the different governments could be found to support such a project.

Of course, I write novels and mull the frustrations of finding publication, creating a brand, marketing myself and my products and earning a living from the pleasure of writing. I mull what big data analytics would show about fiction publishing, especially in this age of self-publishing and digital publishing. One issue constantly encountered is that agents, editors and publishers seek what they enjoy but also try to follow market trends. I’d love to see big data analytics take on the subject.

Writing science fiction, it’s pleasurable toying with big data analytics and human events, like falling in love, committing crimes, finding work, illnesses and death. Isaac Asimov, one of my favorite classic hard science fiction authors, did a terrific job of using big data and analytics in his Foundation series. His scientists predicted a mutant outlier that would cause problems….

 (Aside – I sometimes wonder if my company actually employs big data analytics as much as it could, for surely that would tailor all their sales and marketing efforts and their new product requirements instead of demanding we present business cases and marketing plans to support launching new products and services….)

Big data analytics can’t quite predict everything, then, but the delta between what can be analyzed and what evades analysis is shrinking. I consider myself an artist. I imagined, drew, and painted long before I began writing. I designed cars and interiors and exteriors, and painted and drew in multiple mediums, turning down some small art scholarships to attend college to go do other things. I didn’t know ‘what I wanted to be’ and lacked the insight to realize that learning more would help me understand myself and my desires. I thought, perhaps because that’s how the instruction was geared in the schools I intended, that the goal to schooling was to graduate and find a job and earn a living. Scoffing at that, I joined the military. Problem solved, right? I had a job and I was earning a living.

Eventually I discovered I wanted to try writing fiction to express myself, and here I sit. As an artist, I think some fragment of being human will always evade analysis, a conclusion I share with many thought leaders in AI, robotics and automation. The one thing that can’t be predicted or duplicated remains the human imagination, for now. Some bold new paradigm may be emerging on the horizon, though, that will change that as well.

So, maybe someday some artificial intelligence will sit down to write like crazy and create fiction.

 

I’ll keep trying, though, for at least one more day.

Comments 5

 
Anonymous on Tuesday, 17 February 2015 16:35

Beginning at the end, back in the early 'fifties when computers themselves were science-fiction to the average person and a computer was as big as a two story house, scientists predicted the end of authors. They deduced that there were 37 basic plot lines for fiction or drama and if you fed any one of these into a computer a salable story would come out. I don't know how that played out but after Jacquelyn Susann there were many years when this might as well have been the method.

Backing up, your wife's response was a normal human reaction. We have statistics and we have facts that don't show in the statistics. I think of it as the Allstate theory, maybe the Allstate law. If I rear-end somebody today and do it again next week, then again a month later I can expect to get cancelled. This method might not seem fair to the convict trying to rehabilitate him/herself. And it probably isn't. I respect logic and wish there were more of it in the world. But sometimes it can turn against us. For how long has the response to, "it isn't fair," been, "well, life isn't fair"? Especially when machines, mechanical or human, get involved.

Beginning at the end, back in the early 'fifties when computers themselves were science-fiction to the average person and a computer was as big as a two story house, scientists predicted the end of authors. They deduced that there were 37 basic plot lines for fiction or drama and if you fed any one of these into a computer a salable story would come out. I don't know how that played out but after Jacquelyn Susann there were many years when this might as well have been the method. Backing up, your wife's response was a normal human reaction. We have statistics and we have facts that don't show in the statistics. I think of it as the Allstate theory, maybe the Allstate law. If I rear-end somebody today and do it again next week, then again a month later I can expect to get cancelled. This method might not seem fair to the convict trying to rehabilitate him/herself. And it probably isn't. I respect logic and wish there were more of it in the world. But sometimes it can turn against us. For how long has the response to, "it isn't fair," been, "well, life isn't fair"? Especially when machines, mechanical or human, get involved.
Michael W Seidel on Wednesday, 18 February 2015 18:52

Yes, it's always interesting to parse data and extrapolate trends but it's so very difficult to actually account for everything. Typically, one paradigm shift initiates an unforeseen paradigm shift. While I make such analysis and projections, I always like qualifying them with variables and comments about the known unknowns.

Thanks for reading and commenting. Cheers, M

Yes, it's always interesting to parse data and extrapolate trends but it's so very difficult to actually account for everything. Typically, one paradigm shift initiates an unforeseen paradigm shift. While I make such analysis and projections, I always like qualifying them with variables and comments about the known unknowns. Thanks for reading and commenting. Cheers, M
Rosy Cole on Thursday, 19 February 2015 12:15

As Charlie says, 'We have statistics and we have facts that don't show in the statistics.' Nowhere does this operate more crucially than in the data spawned by (sometimes spurious) drug trials.

But my main point here is in connection with writing. If the Google Analytics of my website are anything like accurate, it's clear I'm netting thousands of readers of blogs and book excerpts, with a strong and increasing trend in return visitors. However, when it comes to book sales, even ebooks, it's like getting blood from a stone. Still, readers are readers. And if you don't reveal your content, you can't generate enthusiasm, or expect people to buy. There are many 'gurus' out there spouting marketing strategies based on all kinds of analytics and theories, but the sudden impulse to purchase is as subjective and arcane as it ever was. Ask a publishing professional!

As Charlie says, 'We have statistics and we have facts that don't show in the statistics.' Nowhere does this operate more crucially than in the data spawned by (sometimes spurious) drug trials. But my main point here is in connection with writing. If the Google Analytics of my website are anything like accurate, it's clear I'm netting thousands of readers of blogs and book excerpts, with a strong and increasing trend in return visitors. However, when it comes to book sales, even ebooks, it's like getting blood from a stone. Still, readers are readers. And if you don't reveal your content, you can't generate enthusiasm, or expect people to buy. There are many 'gurus' out there spouting marketing strategies based on all kinds of analytics and theories, but the sudden impulse to purchase is as subjective and arcane as it ever was. Ask a publishing professional!
Michael W Seidel on Thursday, 19 February 2015 14:20

Rosy, as I read your comments, I'm attending an early morning briefing at work, "The Value of Social: Personal Brand and Digital Eminence", regarding personal digital socialization and branding. My opinion is akin to your opinion. While the brand and socialization can create awareness, many purchases remain impulsive, with subjective and arcane reasoning behind it, things that can't be completely quantified and predicted. I witness this with my spouse. She scours the net for books to read for herself, her mother and her book club, reading reviews, excerpts, comments and lists. She creates her own lists and carries them with her. Yet she still browses, searching for the books not reviewed, not on any list, buying them on impulse.

Thanks for reading and commenting. Cheers, M

Rosy, as I read your comments, I'm attending an early morning briefing at work, "The Value of Social: Personal Brand and Digital Eminence", regarding personal digital socialization and branding. My opinion is akin to your opinion. While the brand and socialization can create awareness, many purchases remain impulsive, with subjective and arcane reasoning behind it, things that can't be completely quantified and predicted. I witness this with my spouse. She scours the net for books to read for herself, her mother and her book club, reading reviews, excerpts, comments and lists. She creates her own lists and carries them with her. Yet she still browses, searching for the books not reviewed, not on any list, buying them on impulse. Thanks for reading and commenting. Cheers, M
Anonymous on Thursday, 19 February 2015 18:43

Michael, Your wife being the compulsive browser she is maybe you should tell her about me. I'm on Amazon. (Kidding.)

Michael, Your wife being the compulsive browser she is maybe you should tell her about me. I'm on Amazon. (Kidding.)
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